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Discussion Starter #1
Was bored while waiting for a deploy, so searched the forum for transmission issues.
There are 39 unique users who had the transmission problem and reported it here.
There are 5,700 registered users (can't get exact number).
That's less than 1% of users here (0.68%)

Statistically speaking there would be a higher volume reported here than the actual numbers. But even if that is the correct percentage and there were 57,000 Ascents sold (makes my math easier) there would only be 390 transmission problems total.

I can't imagine the numbers being higher than that. So you have a 1 in 147 chance of getting a bad transmission.

Oh, and I didn't keep stats, but almost all of the posts were over 6 months old. Only a few were recent.
I'm pretty sure that now you are even safer that the 1/147 chance!

Most people had a good resolution as well.
 

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I am not sure of those numbers, although Robert would certainly say the number of transmission failures is minuscule. I do know that the public must be taking notice. My local dealer has 20 Ascents sitting on their lot and my local KIA dealer has 6 Tellurides.

OT: took my 2018 Outback to the dealer today to get two plastic trim pieces, on the inside of the rear hatch, replaced that they scratched when they repaired the rear hatch motor and latch. The tech in his infinite wisdom used a screwdriver to remove the plastic trim, scratching the paint on both sides of the hatch removing the trim. No wonder owners do not revisit the dealership, except for warranty work.
 

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Was bored while waiting for a deploy, so searched the forum for transmission issues.
There are 39 unique users who had the transmission problem and reported it here.
There are 5,700 registered users (can't get exact number).
That's less than 1% of users here (0.68%)

Statistically speaking there would be a higher volume reported here than the actual numbers. But even if that is the correct percentage and there were 57,000 Ascents sold (makes my math easier) there would only be 390 transmission problems total.

I can't imagine the numbers being higher than that. So you have a 1 in 147 chance of getting a bad transmission.

Oh, and I didn't keep stats, but almost all of the posts were over 6 months old. Only a few were recent.
I'm pretty sure that now you are even safer that the 1/147 chance!

Most people had a good resolution as well.
Also note that not all transmission problems required a full replacement. My issue, at least to date did not (where is that wood). Good points made. It places the issue in some perspective.
 

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I’m unique. :)Yes - I’m going through it at this time. It stinks but I’m not worried about it. They will fix it and in the mean time I get to put miles on the loaner car. Life is too short to let a transmission steal my joy!
 

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My local dealer has 20 Ascents sitting on their lot and my local KIA dealer has 6 Tellurides.
Yep, I explained that before. And it's why the Ascent is outselling the Telluride by thousands. Counting only the full Telluride sales months, 10,000 more Ascents sold, 38,000 to 48,000. The Ascent doesn't sit. It gets replaced quickly when sold.

And that's even though Kia has 170 more dealerships, a heavier ad campaign and... other methods to drum up sales.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
I am not sure of those numbers, although Robert would certainly say the number of transmission failures is minuscule. I do know that the public must be taking notice. My local dealer has 20 Ascents sitting on their lot and my local KIA dealer has 6 Tellurides.
So that's funny. You question my numbers, then throw out a B.S. statistic to counter it? My local Ford dealer has 60 F-150s on the lot, yet it is the best selling truck in the world.

I do know those numbers are what is listed on the forum. What I don't know is how that correlates to the other 50k some owners. But they should be fairly representative, since the sample size is pretty large.
 

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So that's funny. You question my numbers, then throw out a B.S. statistic to counter it? My local Ford dealer has 60 F-150s on the lot, yet it is the best selling truck in the world.

I do know those numbers are what is listed on the forum. What I don't know is how that correlates to the other 50k some owners. But they should be fairly representative, since the sample size is pretty large.
I am not debating statistics, I am merely pointing out the FACT that Ascents are sitting on dealer lots. A part of that is probably because people are reading/hearing about transmission failures on the Ascent. I was looking forward to the Ascent when it first came out, but I would hesitate to purchase one now, even given the relatively low number of CVT failures.

BTW, forum registered owners do not equal Ascent owners.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
I am not debating statistics, I am merely pointing out the FACT that Ascents are sitting on dealer lots. A part of that is probably because people are reading/hearing about transmission failures on the Ascent. I was looking forward to the Ascent when it first came out, but I would hesitate to purchase one now, even given the relatively low number of CVT failures.

BTW, forum registered owners do not equal Ascent owners.
They are sitting? Not being sold and replaced? All the same VINs? So you've checked that FACT?

Successful dealers get more stock. Also the Kia's and the Hyundai's still have the new release numbers going for them. Lower initial stock and higher (relative) sales numbers keep units on the lot down. When I ordered mine, I couldn't even see an Ascent on the lot as they couldn't keep them in stock.

True enough about forum registrations not equaling owners. So the 5.7k isn't totally Ascent owners.
If I take 700 users off, the number becomes 0.78%. Still low.

Anecdotally, I haven't found a transmission problem on a 2020 yet. Thought I haven't searched exhaustively. Also it still may be too soon. I did see some of the 2019s with the failures at 6-10k miles so maybe the 2020s need more miles yet.

Here is the main point. I won't downplay the trouble and heartache for those with transmission problems. It sucks. But for people dismissing the Ascent for an issue that is pretty rare is sad too.
 

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My local dealership gets multiple truckloads a week. There are always about that number on the lot, but they are flying out of the door.

SoA only sends a small percentage of unsold Subies. The vast majority of Subies are built for an order.

Every ordered Subaru sits on the lot for a few days. It has to, as ownership is transferred, it's prepped and PDI'd, and then it waits for the customer to schedule a pickup date and finish their financing. Those too are a part of what "sits".

Unlike other brands, Subaru does NOT just randomly build cars, ship everything to a dealership and hope they sell.

That's also why there's never a big backlog of "last year's model" like with other brands.
 

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They are sitting? Not being sold and replaced? All the same VINs? So you've checked that FACT?

Successful dealers get more stock. Also the Kia's and the Hyundai's still have the new release numbers going for them. Lower initial stock and higher (relative) sales numbers keep units on the lot down. When I ordered mine, I couldn't even see an Ascent on the lot as they couldn't keep them in stock.

True enough about forum registrations not equaling owners. So the 5.7k isn't totally Ascent owners.
If I take 700 users off, the number becomes 0.78%. Still low.

Anecdotally, I haven't found a transmission problem on a 2020 yet. Thought I haven't searched exhaustively. Also it still may be too soon. I did see some of the 2019s with the failures at 6-10k miles so maybe the 2020s need more miles yet.

Here is the main point. I won't downplay the trouble and heartache for those with transmission problems. It sucks. But for people dismissing the Ascent for an issue that is pretty rare is sad too.
I am not trying to cause problems, just attempting to bring a more balanced viewpoint for prospective owners. There is one report of a 2020 Ascent transmission failure on this forum. Post #1,118 from this thread:

 

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There is one report of a 2020 Ascent transmission failure on this forum.
There are more than one, actually. But they are a lot fewer than the August 2018 build range issues.

Every car line has failed transmissions. The 2020 failures, and the 2019 failures outside of that Aug-Nov build window is normal "background noise" so far. It's what I'd expect of 100,000 cars being sold.
 

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I am on my 4th Subaru now (2018 Crosstrek) and all have been great so far. I so much wanted to get an Ascent and followed it closely from the first concepts to the prodn models. However, when I started to read about the transmission problems, I took pause and wanted to see just how big/real this problem was, and the cause (or corroborating circumstances).

One of the initial instances was Snowgirl, and I felt really bad for her given how much she loved her Ascent, and then got treated badly by Subaru with getting it rectified. But the really concerning fact was the replacement also had the same problem. Now what is the statistically probability of that given the reported here low failure rate? That really had me wondering, and for now have decided against an Ascent purchase.

Does Subaru actually know what is causing the problem? Is it a defect, incorrect installation, other associated parts (like the harness), how it is driven, or what? Until that is answered, or there are no more reported problems, I am holding off buying an Ascent.
 

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But the really concerning fact was the replacement also had the same problem. Now what is the statistically probability of that given the reported here low failure rate?
Very very high in her case. Hers was right in the small window before they found a number were failing due to the harness.

So, swap in a new CVT and the harness destroys it.

But, at this point, they have that much figured out, as anyone who logs into STIS can verify.
 

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I noticed with our local dealership, that they seem to have right around 33 on their lot at any given time, but when we were researching it seemed every time I checked their website, they had a different mix of trims, colors, etc. Several of the dealerships we talked to mentioned that they were getting regular shipments of new vehicles to keep up with the demand. With some of them, if we told them exactly what we wanted, they would 'hold' one back for us if we gave them a refundable $500 deposit, and there was a pretty good chance what we wanted would be on a truck relatively quickly. It worked out that the dealership closest to us had exactly what we wanted, so that worked out a bit better.

I haven't spent much time looking into the Telluride sales, but from what I've seen with the local dealerships, as well as the increasing number of Ascents I'm spotting on the roads, it seems like Subaru is selling plenty of them, even with the potential problems. I've only seen a couple Tellurides so far.
 

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Very very high in her case. Hers was right in the small window before they found a number were failing due to the harness.

So, swap in a new CVT and the harness destroys it.

But, at this point, they have that much figured out, as anyone who logs into STIS can verify.
Can you elaborate on that further? Did they confirm it was a bad harness that is causing the failures? And if so, did they find the defect in the harness, and have since corrected it?
 

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Here is the main point. I won't downplay the trouble and heartache for those with transmission problems. It sucks. But for people dismissing the Ascent for an issue that is pretty rare is sad too.
I think you have indeed hit the main point.

What adds to the uncertainty and uneasiness for some folks is the lack of attribution- perceived or real. It's cold comfort to be told you are the unlucky recipient of a statistically unlikely problem. People want to know that the problems have solutions and are less likely to occur in the future. I think the absolute numbers aren't as important as the time evolution of the numbers.

I understand your good intentions, but presenting this as a random chance that you get a bad transmission (however small that probability is) kind of makes it seem like Subaru isn't completely in control of the situation. That would make counting on an Ascent a risky endeavor.

By the way, my perception is that I'm seeing A LOT more Ascents around within the last couple of months. Darn Consumer Reports- somehow I don't feel quite as special. :rolleyes:
 

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Can you elaborate on that further? Did they confirm it was a bad harness that is causing the failures? And if so, did they find the defect in the harness, and have since corrected it?
No, in some cases, the root cause is apparently the harness, but SoA hasn't announced any determination overall. It's still, as best as we can tell, a fraction of a percent.

But, if you look at the spreadsheet we've all been contributing to or watching, we consistent thing across the vast majority is the time frame. August to November 2018, mostly around August.

NOTE: A number of the entries are simply people who don't know how a CVT operates, complaining about normal behavior.

 

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I’m one of the folks with their Ascent in the shop for transmission failure. Although Subaru is not advertising what is going wrong with the transmission I am sure by now they know the root cause. I have been involved troubleshooting many unusual eclectrical / mechanical problems through the years and it is just not that hard to sort out. I have also been involved in root cause analysis and know enough to know that the problem can be figured out and resolved quickly and the report takes months to issue. Subaru is not stupid and they won’t sit around scratching their head wondering what is going wrong while loosing $10k per transmission. They will put their best team of folks on it and get it resolved. I am guessing but this should have happened before the 2020s came out because the head honcho for Subaru Indiana America would have demanded it be done.

Should we be informed as to what the issue is? I’m sure this will be a fun topic of debate but it is really up to Subaru if they want it known. Personally as an engineer I would like to know what the root cause is but I mainly just want it fixed right.

I am sure that all will resolved and I refuse to be consumed with worry and I’ll drive it or any car I own across country. In the mean time I got a loaner Ascent and used it this weekend for a trip to Austin.
 

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Sorry if I missed it in the thread somewhere, but have transmission issues been reported for the 2020’s yet? Or just model year 2019? I have tried to look before but really only see it for the first model year.
 

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Sorry if I missed it in the thread somewhere, but have transmission issues been reported for the 2020’s yet? Or just model year 2019? I have tried to look before but really only see it for the first model year.
The vast majority are a few month time frame in 2019. There are a few from 2020, but a few per year would probably be expected of any brand and any automotic transmission (CVT or not).
 
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